The Rise of No-Cash Bail and Progressive Prosecutors

Cash bail systems, once ubiquitous, required defendants to pay for release pending trial—effectively making wealth a determinant of that freedom. Reformers argued rightly that such systems disproportionately penalized the poor. States like Illinois passed the SAFE-T Act, abolishing cash bail in favor of risk-based release systems.

Cities like San Francisco followed suit under progressive DAs like Chesa Boudin, implementing risk-based assessments and diversion programs targeting low-level offenses. Meanwhile, reformist prosecutors across the nation embraced de-criminalization and reduced sentencing, aiming to reduce incarceration and systemic inequalities.

The Crime Backlash—Perception Meets Reality

Public backlash in many communities emerged when residents perceived that reforms had permitted rising disorder—even when data didn’t confirm a direct causal link.

For instance, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, accused by conservative voices of “decarceration,” has been blamed for rising fare evasion, downgrading of felonies, and unchecked crime in the subway system.

Similarly, in New York State, Governor Kathy Hochul faces growing political pressure to rollback cash bail reform amid criticism that it fosters unsafe streets—even though Mayor Adams points out that NYC shootings and subway felonies remain far below historic highs.

What the Data Actually Shows

Evidence does not support a link between no-cash bail or progressive prosecution and increased crime. Major studies conclude bail reform did not statistically raise crime rates.

• The Brennan Center for Justice analyzed 22 cities with bail reform against 11 without and found no significant uptick in violent or property crime.

• Further reports reiterated: “no statistically significant relationship between bail reform and crime rates”.

• Even media examinations debunk alarmist rhetoric around bail reform, showing crime rates continually declined or hovered steady in many big cities implementing these policies.

Still, in Some Cities Crime Spiked—or at Least Feelings Did

Despite calm in the data, some cities saw real or perceived unrest.

San Francisco, under DA Boudin, saw surges in certain crimes—car burglaries, property theft, and visible street disorder—that fueled public dissatisfaction. That dissatisfaction helped drive his recall in 2022.

Likewise, Portland experimented with police defunding, decriminalization, and reduced prosecutions. The result? A public feeling of lawlessness. Businesses shuttered, violence surged, and rogue vigilante groups emerged. The city then reversed course to restore funding and rehire officers.

Myth vs. Reality in Public Discourse

A dangerous myth persists: that reform = rising crime. This oversimplifies a complex issue and misattributes causation.

For Washington, D.C.—a longstanding cashless bail jurisdiction—President Trump has called it “lawless” and even threatened National Guard deployment. In reality, violent crime has dropped significantly, with homicide and juvenile arrests trending downward.

Even critics acknowledge these claims are more political narrative than fact, as multiple metrics show improving conditions.

Cities Without Reform Also Struggle

It’s also important to contextualize: crime is not just rising in left-leaning cities. America’s most violent rates today are often in rural communities across the South and West—not urban jurisdictions with progressive reforms. States like Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, Alaska, and New Mexico report high per-capita homicides, often outpacing big cities in violent crime rates.

Why the Perception-Data Gap?

Several factors contribute to the feeling that reform is synonymous with increased crime:

• Media Focus: Dramatic footage of street crime or disorder spikes attention—even when rare.

• Policy Lag: Real-world benefits like lower incarceration take time; disruptions are felt earlier.

• Legitimate Police Vacuums: Rapid cuts to enforcement or diverging prosecutorial priorities may leave short-term gaps that community members feel.

• Emotional Impact: Even a few high-profile incidents can generate fear and outrage.

Crafting Safe, Smart Reform

1. Hold Prosecutors Accountable
   Rather than roll back reforms wholesale, policymakers should insist on transparency in charging decisions, diversion effectiveness, and recidivism outcomes.

2. Adjust, Don’t Repeal, Bail Reform
   Risk-based release systems should respond to local feedback—permitting cash bail for high-risk repeat offenders if justified, while preserving access for low-risk individuals.

3. Invest in Community Safety
   Boost mental health services, violence intervention programs, and street outreach to curb root causes.

4. Use Data-Driven Policing
   Target hot spots with precision—ensure law enforcement is outfitted and distributed where needed without broad aggressive tactics.

5. Communication Matters
   Explain policy logic clearly. Public trust is vital: show how reducing incarceration fosters equity, while ensuring public safety isn’t sacrificed.

Final Thought

The truth about crime, bail reform, and prosecution philosophy is more nuanced than political slogans suggest.

• Crime trends—evaluated empirically—do not show bail reform or progressive DAs inherently causing spikes in crime.

• But public perceptions are powerful. For policy to succeed, it must yield both safety and legitimacy.

• The real failure lies not in reform, but in reform implemented without safeguards, clear communication, or support services.

So yes: some cities are facing serious crime waves—and while progressive policies may factor into their storyline, the data-driven consensus is clear: reforms alone are not the root cause. Effective, accountable governance and thoughtful community investment remain vital in preventing the very problems these reforms seek to solve.

Here’s a clear, state-by-state comparison of violent crime and homicide rates (per 100,000 people). These are the latest complete, comparable FBI state figures (2022); I’ve also added quick notes at the end on how 2023–2024 trends moved nationally and what studies say about bail reform. (District of Columbia is shown separately because it’s not a state.)

How to read this

• Violent crime includes murder/non-negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.

• Homicide is shown separately (per 100k).

• Source for the state table: FBI Uniform Crime Reports via the consolidated state table.

State-by-state (alphabetical) — FBI 2022

• Alabama — Violent: 409.1 | Homicide: 10.9.

• Alaska — Violent: 758.9 | Homicide: 9.5.

• Arizona — Violent: 431.5 | Homicide: 6.8.

• Arkansas — Violent: 645.3 | Homicide: 10.2.

• California — Violent: 499.5 | Homicide: 5.7.

• Colorado — Violent: 492.5 | Homicide: 6.4.

• Connecticut — Violent: 150.0 | Homicide: 3.8.

• Delaware — Violent: 383.5 | Homicide: 4.8.

• Florida — Violent: 258.9 | Homicide: 5.0.

• Georgia — Violent: 367.0 | Homicide: 8.2.

• Hawaii — Violent: 259.6 | Homicide: 2.1.

• Idaho — Violent: 241.4 | Homicide: 2.7.

• Illinois — Violent: 287.3 | Homicide: 7.8.

• Indiana — Violent: 306.2 | Homicide: 6.2.

• Iowa — Violent: 286.5 | Homicide: 1.7.

• Kansas — Violent: 414.6 | Homicide: 4.6.

• Kentucky — Violent: 214.1 | Homicide: 6.8.

• Louisiana — Violent: 628.6 | Homicide: 16.1.

• Maine — Violent: 103.3 | Homicide: 2.2.

• Maryland — Violent: 398.5 | Homicide: 8.5.

• Massachusetts — Violent: 322.0 | Homicide: 2.1.

• Michigan — Violent: 461.0 | Homicide: 6.9.

• Minnesota — Violent: 280.6 | Homicide: 3.2.

• Mississippi — Violent: 245.0 | Homicide: 7.8.

• Missouri — Violent: 488.0 | Homicide: 10.1.

• Montana — Violent: 417.9 | Homicide: 4.5.

• Nebraska — Violent: 282.8 | Homicide: 3.2.

• Nevada — Violent: 454.0 | Homicide: 6.8.

• New Hampshire — Violent: 125.6 | Homicide: 1.8.

• New Jersey — Violent: 202.9 | Homicide: 3.1.

• New Mexico — Violent: 780.5 | Homicide: 12.0.

• New York — Violent: 429.3 | Homicide: 4.0.

• North Carolina — Violent: 405.1 | Homicide: 8.1.

• North Dakota — Violent: 279.6 | Homicide: 3.5.

• Ohio — Violent: 293.6 | Homicide: 6.1.

• Oklahoma — Violent: 419.7 | Homicide: 6.7.

• Oregon — Violent: 342.4 | Homicide: 4.5.

• Pennsylvania — Violent: 279.9 | Homicide: 7.9.

• Rhode Island — Violent: 172.3 | Homicide: 1.5.

• South Carolina — Violent: 491.3 | Homicide: 11.2.

• South Dakota — Violent: 377.4 | Homicide: 4.3.

• Tennessee — Violent: 621.6 | Homicide: 8.6.

• Texas — Violent: 431.9 | Homicide: 6.7.

• Utah — Violent: 241.8 | Homicide: 2.0.

• Vermont — Violent: 221.9 | Homicide: 3.4.

• Virginia — Violent: 234.0 | Homicide: 7.3.

• Washington — Violent: 375.6 | Homicide: 5.0.

• West Virginia — Violent: 277.9 | Homicide: 4.6.

• Wisconsin — Violent: 297.0 | Homicide: 5.3.

• Wyoming — Violent: 201.9 | Homicide: 2.6.

District of Columbia (not a state) — Violent: 812.3 | Homicide: 29.3.

Quick takeaways

• Highest violent-crime states (2022): New Mexico, Alaska, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina.

• Lowest violent-crime states (2022): Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Wyoming, Vermont.

• 2024 national trend: The FBI reports violent crime fell ~4.5% in 2024 vs. 2023, continuing the post-2022 declines.

• Homicide (recent context): An Axios review of the latest FBI data highlights elevated homicide rates in parts of the rural South and West (e.g., Alaska, New Mexico), even as some large coastal states sit closer to national averages on a per-capita basis.

Where “no-cash bail / major bail limits” exist & what studies show (context)

• Illinois (cash bail eliminated 2023): One-year lookbacks suggest statewide violent & property crime fell ~12% after implementation.

• New Jersey (2017 reform): Academic work finds reduced incarceration with no increase in gun violence after reform.

• New York (2019–2020 reform with later tweaks): A quasi-experimental study in NYC found lower recidivism on eligible cases; no increase among those still eligible for bail.

• National backdrop: The FBI’s 2023 and 2024 releases show declining national violent crime, underscoring that broader trends don’t map neatly onto any single policy change.

By Poor Norman

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